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Exxon (XOM) gets slammed in a report by the Union of Concerned Scientists for disinformation campaign knowledge.  See Reuters Article

 In Exxon's response they admit,   "While there is more to learn on climate science, what is clear today is that greenhouse gas emissions are one of the factors that contribute to climate change, and that the use of fossil fuels is a major source of these emissions. "

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David Neubert

David Neubert

Former Wall Street trader
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Bought AAPL at $329 this morning 03-17-11
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Written by Investor   

Bought AAPL at $329 this morning 03-17-11

Was just a temporary dip in my opinion, we'll see...

 
Listening to Market Predictions: Do Not Get Caught Picking Your Bottom
Written by David Neubert   
The media is having a field day with the market decline. People who wouldn't normally be interested are watching CNBC or Bloomberg TV and reading the business section. If you are making predictions of Dow 2000 or Dow 1000 you will get on TV or quoted in the newspaper. Now there is also a big incentive to call the bottom of the market. The person who randomly picks the bottom will become famous but many who follow the predictions of bottom pickers will get nothing but losses. There is an old Wall Street saying that goes: "Don't pick your nose and don't pick bottoms."

What is the right thing to do?

If you have a 401k:
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Global Bailouts Will Lead to Global Inflation: How to Play It
Written by David Neubert   
Global Bailouts Will Lead to Global Inflation: How to Play It
Photo: tao_zhyn, Creative Commons, Flickr
All the money used by central banks around the world to rescue the financial system is causing an increase in government liabilities.

In other words, they are printing money.
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September Madness: At Least Something Fun Comes Out of Crisis
Written by David Neubert   
The NCAA basketball tournament is one of the biggest events of the year on Wall Street. I've heard of millions changing hands buying and selling teams like stocks throughout the elimination rounds. Shorting is allowed as well as buying. Nearly all the trades are on credit (no money down). I've heard of floor brokers on the NYSE who only work one month a year as bookies for the Final Four. Millions of dollars change hands at settlement (after the tournament is over and a winner is determined). Nearly all of that is in cash.

According to TechCrunch this .jpg was reportedly created by Mark Slavonia at Sansome Partners.
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Beware Principal Protected Notes
Written by David Neubert   
Principal protected notes are a bit of a misnomer.
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The Lehman Brothers Collapse Hits the Real Estate Market
Written by David Neubert   
The Lehman Brothers Collapse Hits the Real Estate Market
Photo: Financial Aid Podcast, Creative Commons, Flickr
If you read my blog earlier this week predicting a fall in New York real estate from the Lehman collapse, this big seller ($32 million) could be the first post-Lehman effect on the housing market. Too bad Lehman was the only investment bank not to get a Fed bailout or maybe this fantastic Hamptons place would not be for sale . . .

Disclosure: I was a Managing Director at Lehman, I left at the beginning of 2005. I am vested in their now worthless executive compensation plan. I own a condo in Manhattan that is certain to fall in value but I gotta live somewhere so I won't sell. I have not seen him since I left Lehman but I knew and liked Joe Gregory. He was part of the team of people who recruited me to Lehman Brothers from Morgan Stanley. I found him to be a direct and reliable manager and I am sorry he has to go through this recent crisis. If I know him, he will turn it around for himself and end up at some lucky organization in a productive capacity. After all, his personal losses are only financial. It is possible that he was planning to sell this house before Lehman collapsed.
 
How to Murder a CEO
Written by David Neubert   
I couldn't resist the violent title. A mob of fired workers in India killed the local CEO of Italian Manufacturer Graziano Transmissioni. Now, I am totally against death as punishment in any circumstance, and this event will likely hurt the willingness of foreign companies to locate manufacturing in India, but the punishment is ironic given the number of layoffs on Wall Street and their superior means of enacting revenge on their bosses these days. I wonder how many millionaire bankers and insurance executives have fantasized about the route these frustrated workers took.

Hat Tip: DealBreaker.com.
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Where Does the Financial Bailout Money Come From?
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Written by David Neubert   
Where Does the Financial Bailout Money Come From?
Photo: KRISnFRED, Creative Commons, Flickr
I have the following response to a reader question:

Where does the $700 Billion that the government is spending to rescue financial institutions come from? Is it printed and will it cause inflation?
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Manhattan Real Estate Prices and The Euro
Written by David Neubert   
A reader comment asks:
The dollar still seems low enough that Russians and other non-US buyers may help with your predicted real-estate collapse ... thoughts?

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How the Lehman Collapse Made Me Thankful
Written by David Neubert   
Jeane Roberts writes a frustrated account of the fall of AIG and points out the amount of public money going the rescue of various financial institutions (except Lehman Brothers).

Personally, and for my net worth, I'm disappointed that Lehman (LEH, LEHPQ - $0.30) didn't get rescued. As an ex-employee and shareholder I would have liked some of the public money Ms. Roberts mentions being thrown around for Lehman. It was the last place I worked and its collapse hit me hard.

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Free Toaster With Your Bank?
Written by David Neubert   
Bank Shares are just so darn cheap right now they could be giving them away with toasters. If you don't want to have to figure out which bank is going under next you can just buy the (XLF -22.36) on next dip. Personally, I've been buying Lehman (LEH - $20.63) because I think they will not go the way of Bear Stearns and American Express (AXP - $38.13) because they are not a bank and any temporary reduction in credit card spending will be made up by the secular trend toward credit card usage and the higher service provided by American Express products.

This cartoon from the Sacramento Bee says it all:
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Criticizing Buffett for Being a Good Guy
Written by David Neubert   
I know, let's bash Warren Buffett for supporting Obama. That is what James Altucher does in showing all the ways that Obama policies benefit Buffett at the expense of everyone else.

In his list of examples, he includes that Obama's (and Buffett's) support of the inheritance tax is good for for Buffett since he plans to give away most of his money to charities.
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Looking for Good Dividend Stocks
Written by David Neubert   
I'm in Boulder, Colorado today. The town seems full of people living on dividends. If you're looking for stocks to retire on, go for growing dividends. In these times of uncertainty with the stock market and currency, stable dividends provide a floor on a stock's price.
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McDonald's Product Placement Ruins Journalism
Written by David Neubert   
I have to respect any consumer products company that is innovative in its marketing. First McDonald's knocks over Starbucks (SBUX - $14.54) with competing coffee. Now they trick the Meredith corporation into accepting innovative product placement no self respecting journalist would take. According to the New York Times, KVVU News in Las Vegas is accepting product placement during newscasts. While I can't blame McDonald's (MCD - $58.37) in this case for working hard and clever, I have to shed a tear for American journalism.
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Value Investor: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
Written by David Neubert   
As a value investor, this recent market pullback has been good, bad and ugly for me.

Good: I'm getting the opportunity to buy quality companies and cheap-long term prices. Recent buys include Proctor and Gamble (PG - $63.38), Pepsi (PEP - $64.55), Coca Cola (KO - $51.00), General Electric (GE - $27.10) and United Technologies (UTX - $60.38)

Bad: My bet on oil stocks isn't paying off the way I had hoped in this rising oil market.
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Consumer Products Shopping Spree Inspired By Russell Rebalance
Written by David Neubert   
Consumer Products Shopping Spree Inspired By Russell Rebalance
Photo: Alexsandro Alves, Creative Commons, Flickr
The market was selling off today, which hit consumer stocks. Added to that was the fact that the Russell Index Rebalancing that occurred today tends to push down the stocks of companies that have been engaging in buybacks.

So what's a greedy trader to do? Since, I don't like shopping in stores, I went shopping in the market.
Here's what I bought:
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Profit From Clean Energy: Buy the Biggest Patent Filers
Written by David Neubert   
Profit From Clean Energy: Buy the Biggest Patent Filers
Photo: Ian Muttoo, Creative Commons, Flickr
If you're looking for a way to profit from clean energy, look to buy the companies that are filing the most clean energy patents. According to a study by an intellectual property law firm in Albany, Heslin Rothenberg Farley & Mesiti P.C., the top spots were taken by Honda Motor Company (HMC - $34.78), followed by General Electric (GE - $29.12) and General Motors (GM - $15.61).

Interestingly, most of the clean energy patents are being filed by automobile companies and not energy companies.

Of the list, I like GE and Honda the best. Honda has one of the world's most innovative research departments and a very low P/E of 10 that reflects fears about a U.S. slowdown. Honda is also the Japanese auto manufacturer most dependent on the U.S. market.
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Obama Advisor Defends WalMart but I Buy Target
Written by David Neubert   
Obama Advisor Defends WalMart but  I Buy Target
Photo: drp, Creative Commons, Flickr
Liberals are criticizing Obama Economic Advisor Jason Furhman for his pro WalMart (WMT -$59.50) comments. USNews blogger James Pethokoukis thinks Jason Furhman may not last long with Obama but I hope he does. Furman is from the Brookings Institute and seems to be fairly centrist.

I do not currently hold WalMart shares. I sold WMT and bought Target (TGT - $52.61) because I find Target's growth story to be more compelling at the moment. According to First Call, at $59.50 WalMart has a forward P/E ratio of over 17 versus that of Target (TGT - $52.61) at under 15.
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The Fed Considers Collateral Value vs. Inflation
Written by David Neubert   
Would the Fed hold back on stopping inflation just to protect its new mortgage portfolio? Michael Pento at GreenFaucet certainly proposes the idea. I think the proposal is wrong. The value of collateral held by the Fed is much less important to them than the long-term effects of inflation. Inflation hurts the credibility of the Fed and thus long term interest rates (in the long term). And having an untrustworthy central bank would wreck havoc with the economy and the Fed greater than any losses on the collateral value of loans to banks.

The real worry? Stagflation. The Fed is now considering raising interest rates to stop inflation in the face of a slowing economy.

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The Understated Inflation May Mask that We are Already in a Recession
Written by David Neubert   
This morning at my local West Village organic coffee shop after my run but before my a shower, I had raging discussion about inflation and GDP data with one of my coffee shop friends. Suffice it to say there was a bet about BLS data and I won a free cup of mud. But in the process I went to his blog and discovered something wonderful. I love it when non-professional economists write something salient and newsworthy. Craig Blitz, in his personal blog write that because inflation is underreported (I'll let him explain why) that we are actually finding ourselves in a recession sooner than the press and everyone else thinks.
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